Learn · Plain-English definitions
The break-even multiple: what it takes to get back
How many times the current price has to multiply before the old all-time high is on the screen again. Down 50% needs 2×. Down 90% needs 10×. Down 99% needs 100×. The market does not owe anyone any of them.
The formula
break-even multiple = all-time high ÷ current price
A coin that peaked at $120 and trades at $12 needs a 10× move to break even for whoever bought the top. That is the entire calculation. The reason it deserves its own page is that almost nobody's intuition produces it from the percentage.
Why percentages hide it
Losses and gains are asymmetric. Falling from 100 to 10 is a 90% loss; climbing from 10 back to 100 is a 900% gain. Same distance on the chart, wildly different numbers — because the loss is measured against the big number and the recovery against the small one.
This is why “it's only down 90% from the top” and “it needs to do a 10×, which almost no large asset has ever done twice” describe the same coin. The first sentence is how a drawdown feels; the second is what distance from ATH converts into once you divide.
| Loss from peak | Break-even multiple | As a percentage gain |
|---|---|---|
| −20% | 1.25× | +25% |
| −50% | 2× | +100% |
| −75% | 4× | +300% |
| −90% | 10× | +900% |
| −95% | 20× | +1,900% |
| −99% | 100× | +9,900% |
What the number is for
Not prediction — arithmetic. A break-even multiple does not say a coin cannot recover; it says precisely how large the claim “it will get back to ATH” actually is, so the claim can be judged at its real size. A 2× happens all the time. A 100× is a once-per-cycle lottery ticket, and holding one is a decision worth making with the number in view.
Where to see it live
AltClock's Graveyard view lists the whole board sorted by drawdown, each coin with its break-even multiple printed next to it. It is the least sympathetic screen we make, and the most clarifying.
See it live
All of this runs as numbers on the AltClock board — live, for 40+ coins, with minimal sympathy. Related reading: distance from ATH and Bitcoin dominance.